Is Father Time Catching up to Mark Giordano?

Mark Giordano ready for a faceoff. Photo Credit: Sergei Belski

When all is said and done, Mark Giordano will go down as one of the best players to have ever wear a Flames jersey. What makes Giordano’s career so unique and special is that he arrived on the scene as an undrafted rookie. Giordano not only went undrafted in the NHL but in junior hockey too. Following stints in the AHL and Russia, Giordano finally made his mark during the 2008-09 season. The Flames’s captain has patrolled the Calgary Flames’ blueline for over 15 seasons playing over 900 games for the Flames. The sturdy defenseman established career-highs during the 2018-19 season when he scored 74 points in 78 games to capture the Norris Trophy. Giordano received Norris votes in each of the 5 previous seasons before securing the elusive award.

Although Giordano may be 37 years old, he was still the Flames’ best defender last season, and the statistics show it. Flames coach, Geoff Ward, consistently relied on his top pairing of Giordano and Brodie to handle key defensive zone tasks, and it shows. Giordano received 10.38 defensive zone starts per 60 minutes which placed him second behind TJ Brodie, who led with 10.47. Giordano posted a Corsi for percentage (CF%) of 52.80% which led all Flames defensemen. Giordano also ranked first when it came to expected goals and shot against per 60 minutes at 2.07 and 28.96, respectively.

You can also expect Giordano to be one of the fittest when training camp opens. Even when Michael Frolik edged out the defender, Giordano’s numbers were still up from the previous year. Flames’ Head Strength and Conditioning Coach, Ryan van Asten, has lauded Giordano for his work ethic.

Mark Giordano resting up during a Flames fitness test. Photo Credit: Jeff McIntosh

 “You never have to push him to work harder. He’s already doing it. And he does it for his teammates. He’s a great leader and you never have to ask him to do anything. It’s just easy”

The ironman leads on the ice, but his willingness to set examples for others to follow and his insistence on doing what's best for the team is what makes him such a special leader. The defenseman has already ceded quarterback duties of the first power-play (PP) unit over to younger rearguard, Rasmus Andersson. Andersson has already seen his average PP ice time increase to 4:12 from last season’s mark of 1:33. Giordano, however, is skating 2:39 on the PP which is only four seconds less than last season’s.

Here is where it gets interesting though. After skating an average of 17:03 at 5v5 last season, Giordano’s 5v5 time on ice (TOI) is down to 14:36 this season. Giordano hasn’t seen ice time this low since his rookie season when he skated 12:17 a game. Giordano’s 5v5 TOI ranks him fifth among the Flames’ defensemen this season. Only newcomer, Nikita Nesterov, has skated less than Giordano at 13:55. It seems like Ward is relying less on Giordano this season with Anderson and Chris Tanev being the ones being tasked with defensive duties now. Anderson has received 11.15 defensive starts per 60, while Chris Tanev has received 10.38 defensive starts per 60. Giordano ranks third on the team with 9.75 defensive starts per 60.

But decreased ice time isn’t just the only thing that is concerning for Giordano this season. Giordano has a CF% of 45.97% which ranks him second-last among the Flames’ six defenders. He has also allowed 3.11 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), 34.9 shots against per 60 (SA/60), 34.38 scoring chance against per 60 (SCA/60), and 16.94 high-danger scoring chance attempts per 60 (HDCA/60) at 5v5. These may just look like a bunch of numbers to you, but if the season were to end today, these would all represent career lows for Giordano.

So far this season, Giordano has an Isolated 5v5 Impact of -0.9% xGF and -0.1% xGA, according to hockey statistician, Micah Blake McCurdy, other known as @IneffectiveMath on Twitter. Giordano is only two seasons removed from his Norris winning campaign and he had an Isolated 5v5 Impact of +10.1% xGF and -6.5% xGA that season. Last season, those numbers dipped to -1.5% xGF and -3.9% xGA. Giordano’s two way game took a hit last season and it has carried on to this season too. Giordano’s defensive impact is barely under 0% this year and with drops in subsequent years, it seems like his defense is starting to fall off. Giordano’s offense has taken a hit too, with his xGF% being on pace for consecutive negative seasons, although Giordano’s xGF% has increased by +0.6% this season.

Moreover, other parts of Giordano’s game have fallen off too. The defender has a takeaway per 60 rate of 0.51 this season. This is Giordano’s lowest rate since the 2010-11 season when he had 0.75. Last season, his takeaway rate was 1.35 per 60 to put that into perspective. Giordano is also blocking fewer shots this season. The defender has blocked 3.08 shots per 60, which is his lowest rate since the 2008-09 season where he blocked 2.61 shots per 60. Another far cry when compared to last season’s rate when he was blocking 5.69 shots per 60. This season's rate has decreased by more than half.

What’s even more concerning is that Giordano is receiving more offensive starts this season but only has three points to show for it. Giordano is receiving 9.24 starts per 60 in the offensive zone this season which is a little bump from last season’s rate of 8.91. Out of Giordano’s three points, two of them are assists. The two assists are secondary assists which indicates that he isn’t really driving play this season. In addition, two of Giordano’s three points have come on the power-play which also indicates unsustainability.

However, one can argue that the dip in Giordano’s production can be attributed to the departure of longtime defensive partner, TJ Brodie. The pairing spent five of the last seven seasons together as the Flames’ top pairing, with Giordano spending the other two with the now budding Norris candidate, Dougie Hamilton. Just like Hamilton, Brodie departed the Flames organization, taking his defensive prowess to Toronto this past offseason. In the chart below, we can see that Giordano is currently on pace to have his worst 5v5 season in the last 8 years. Giordano's career lows are in bold. We can see that Giordano is on pace to have the worst Corsi-For Percentage, Shots Against/60, Expected Goals Against/60, Scoring Chances Against/60, High-Danger Chances Against/60 of his career, all while playing with a new partner.

Mark Giordano (#5) talking it over with former defensive partner, TJ Brodie (#7). Photo Credit: Juan Ocampo

Giordano's Defensive Partner Statistics

Season	Giordano's Defensive Partner	TOI/GP	Defensive Zone Starts %	Corsi-For (CF%)	Shots Against/60 (SA/60)	Expected Goals Against/60 (xGA/60)	Scoring Chances Against/60	High-Danger Scoring Chances Against/60 (HDCA/60)
2020-21	Rasmus Andersson	12:26	47.50	48.02	33.23	2.57	30.55	13.40
2019-20	TJ Brodie	11:31	56.16	53.32	28.23	2.02	24.57	9.44
2018-17	TJ Brodie	13:59	50.92	57.70	25.69	1.99	22.68	9.64
2017-16	Dougie Hamilton	15:23	46.90	58.25	28.06	2.0	22.21	8.37
2016-17	Dougie Hamilton	11:57	50.58	56.65	24.33	1.74	20.38	7.21
2015-16	TJ Brodie	12:42	52.33	49.91	27.57	2.27	24.54	10.52
2014-15	TJ Brodie	16:57	58.36	49.00	27.04	2.0	22.98	9.69
2013-14	TJ Brodie	12:23	60.57	56.25	22.82	1.94	21.36	10.07

But playing with Andersson isn't foreign to Giordano at all. Last season, Giordano played 57.4% of his 5v5 minutes with Brodie and 28.9% was spent with Andersson. The Giordano-Andersson pairing had a CF% of 54.91 which was slightly better than the Giordano-Brodie pairing of 53.32. They also had a better xGA/60, SCA/60, HDCA/60 which makes sense as they were sheltered with more offensive zone starts and spent less time together, so a lower sample size could have skewed the statistics.

TJ Brodie vs Rasmus Andersson as Giordano's Defensive Partner Last Season

Giordano's Defensive Partner	TOI/GP	Defensive Zone Starts %	Corsi-For (CF%)	Shots Against/60 (SA/60)	Expected Goals Against/60 (xGA/60)	Scoring Chances Against/60 (SCA/60)	High-Danger Scoring Chances/60 (HDCA/60)
Rasmus Andersson	4:36	51.11	54.91	29.73	1.87	23.00	7.16
TJ Brodie	11:31	56.16	53.32	28.23	2.02	24.57	9.44

The Flames are already 16% finished with their season, having played 9 games so far. One can argue that old age is catching up to Giordano, while others may say that the switch from Brodie to Rasmus is negatively affecting Giordano's play. We're still early in the season so Giordano still has ample time to turn it around. We are talking about one of the fittest, if not the fittest, players on the Flames' roster after all. Given the cards that Giordano has been dealt with, he has rallied against those who have been against him and have silenced critics before. I have no doubt in mind that Giordano can turn it around, but the clock is ticking and father time is knocking on the door.