Regression Candidate: Tony DeAngelo
Introduction
Tony DeAngelo has been somewhat of an enigma throughout his hockey career. It’s no secret that the defenseman is offensively talented, but on-ice misconducts and toxic social media behaviour has proved DeAngelo to be a headcase. Last season, DeAngelo was an integral piece of the New York Rangers, putting up 53 points in 68 games. DeAngelo was 4th among defenseman when it came to points. Only John Carlson, Roman Josi, and Victor Hedman were ahead of DeAngelo. That’s a pretty lofty company to be in I would say.
The real question is, was DeAngelo just a product of Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin? Or was the New Jersey native able to propel himself? We are talking about a player who put up 179 points in 203 games in the OHL after all. The Rangers’ blueliner has had a torrid start to the season so far, being held pointless in three games, scratched for taking undisciplined penalties, and has skated with the Rangers’ taxi squad. Not a great start to the season for the defenseman so far, but enough about the DeAngelo of this season. We’re here today to take a look at what went right for DeAngelo last season and if he can continue to build on from last season.
Power-Play Production
As mentioned previously, DeAngelo put up 53 points in 68 games last season. This translates to a 64 point pace across a full 82 game season which puts DeAngelo in the same conversation with the likes of Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, and the three aforementioned defensemen. Let’s take a look at DeAngelo’s power-play (PP) production first as PP production is what separates the great fantasy players from the good ones.
Diving in a bit deeper, 19 of DeAngelo’s 53 points came on the PP. The defenseman has never exceeded more than 10 power-play points (PPP) in his career before which suggests signs of regression. 16 of DeAngelo’s PPP were assists with 8 of them being secondary assists. Prior to last season, DeAngelo tallied 7 power-play secondary assists. Theoretically, DeAngelo actually improved by increasing his primary assist total from 3 to 8. Additionally, the Rangers’ PP features elite players, such as Zibanejad and Panarin, so DeAngelo should still be able to maintain his PP production as long as he’s on the first unit. DeAngelo also received an increase of over a minute of ice time on the PP to boot. No sign of regression here other than shooting 9% (3 goals on 33 shots) on the PP.
Tony DeAngelo's Career Power-Play Production
| Season | Goals | Assists | Primary Assists | Secondary Assists | Points | SOG | S% | IPP | ixG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 13.33% | 57.14 | 1.07 |
| 2017-18 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0% | 85.71 | 0.71 |
| 2018-19 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 0% | 76.92 | 1.02 |
| 2019-20 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 33 | 9.09% | 61.29 | 2.19 |
Everything seems pretty in line for DeAngelo, but some of you might say he got carried by Zibanejad and Panarin on the PP, so let's take a look at his scoring rates. DeAngelo's goals, primary assists, points, and shots per 60 minutes were all the 2nd highest of his career, so we know that this is a level that he can reach again. The one thing that stands out is the secondary assist rate. DeAngelo had the third-highest or second-lowest, depending on how you look at it, secondary assist rate of his career. His secondary assist rate of 2.34 was a decrease from 3.59 of the previous season. To add on, DeAngelo upped his primary assist rate from 1.54 to 2.34. The decrease in secondary assist rate indicates that DeAngelo became more of a play driver last year.
Tony DeAngelo's Career Power-Play Production per 60 minutes
| Season | TOI/G | Goals | Assists | Primary Assists | Secondary Assists | Points | SOG | S% | IPP | ixG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 2:30 | 1.26 | 3.77 | 1.26 | 2.51 | 5.03 | 9.42 | 13.33% | 57.14 | 0.67 |
| 2017-18 | 1:55 | 0 | 5.83 | 2.89 | 1.94 | 5.83 | 9.72 | 0% | 85.71 | 0.69 |
| 2018-19 | 1:58 | 0 | 5.13 | 1.54 | 3.59 | 5.13 | 6.15 | 0% | 76.92 | 0.52 |
| 2019-20 | 3:03 | 0.88 | 4.68 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 5.56 | 9.66 | 9.09% | 61.29 | 0.64 |
Even-Strength Production
Moving onto DeAngelo’s even-strength (EV) production now, 34 of his 53 points came from EV, which represents the bulk of his production. We’ll start off with DeAngelo’s goals. DeAngelo scored 12 goals on 115 shots, giving him a shooting percentage of 10.43%. This isn’t a great sign so far as DeAngelo has not shot higher than 6.67% since his rookie season, where he scored 3 goals on 45 shots. To add on, DeAngelo’s ixG (Individual Expected Goals) was 6.32 which meant that DeAngelo scored more (12 vs 6.32) than what was expected. DeAngelo's ixG almost doubled last season from the previous in addition.
DeAngelo had 22 helpers with 12 of those helpers being secondary assists, which again, is not a great sign. Furthermore, DeAngelo’s EV IPP (Individual Point Percentage) was 53.13 last year. In the previous three seasons, DeAngelo’s IPP was as follows: 42.86, 13.33, and 34.48. DeAngelo has not topped 42.86 since his rookie season and last season's IPP indicates that he was involved in a Rangers' goal more than half the time when he was on the ice. Again, this does not bode well as DeAngelo is scoring a lot more than his EV career average, across every category
Tony DeAngelo's Career Even-Strength Production
| Season | Goals | Assists | Primary Assists | Secondary Assists | Points | SOG | S% | IPP | ixG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 6.67% | 42.86 | 1.92 |
| 2017-18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 58 | 0% | 13.33 | 2.04 |
| 2018-19 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 98 | 4.08% | 34.48 | 3.66 |
| 2019-20 | 12 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 34 | 115 | 10.43% | 53.13 | 6.32 |
Again, let's move our attention to DeAngelo's EV scoring rate so that we can get a full scope of his EV production last year. The first thing that stands out is that DeAngelo produced more while receiving a decrease in EV ice time. We can attribute this increase to the goals scored last season. DeAngelo scored 12 goals, which was 3 times higher than his career-high of 4. The blueliner's shooting percentage more than doubled (10.43%) from the previous season (4.08%)and his ixG/60 of 0.32 indicates this. DeAngelo's ixG throughout his career has ranged from 0.2 to 0.26, so last year was an outlier. On the bright side, DeAngelo maintained his shot pace and increased his primary assist rate, while having the second-lowest EV IPP of his career. We can determine that DeAngelo's production increase was a product of shooting high.
Tony DeAngelo's Career Even-Strength Production per 60 Minutes
| Season | Goals | Assists | Primary Assists | Secondary Assists | Points | SOG | S% | IPP | ixG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 6.67% | 42.86 | 1.92 |
| 2017-18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 58 | 0% | 13.33 | 2.04 |
| 2018-19 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 98 | 4.08% | 34.48 | 3.66 |
| 2019-20 | 12 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 34 | 115 | 10.43% | 53.13 | 6.32 |
Conclusion
A quick glance of DeAngelo’s stats on Hockey Reference would tell anyone that DeAngelo is a prime candidate for regression this season. DeAngelo shot 10.1% and his career average prior to last season was 3.8%. A huge uptick in IPP and EV secondary assists are two other signs of regression. Some might say that it’s still early on in the season, but DeAngelo is averaging 16:15 time on ice. Last season, DeAngelo averaged 19:17, a difference of over 3 minutes. Not to mention, Adam Fox, who scored 42 points while on PP2 last year, has supplanted DeAngelo as the quarterback for PP1. I avoided DeAngelo like a plague during my draft but for those who didn't, there still might be time to cut your loss. As for those who are holding onto DeAngelo and think he can still build on from last season, god bless your soul.
Sources
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/
https://www.hockey-reference.com/