The Leafs Have a Gem on Their Hands and He's Only Getting Started
Photo Credit: Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images
Last week, I whipped up a post that some of you may have seen on r/hockey. A lot of readers enjoyed it which inspired me to write up another post, but this time from my favourite team. Today, we will be taking a look at Justin Holl and analysing why he has been playing so well this season.
Now it's no secret that Justin Holl has been one of Leafs' best defenseman this season. Anyone who has kept up with the Toronto Marlies over the years saw how good Holl was first hand. He is a great skater who can read the play well and is willing to bomb forward to create plays. It seemed like the Leafs finally found the right-handed defenseman that they coveted all these years, which was why eyebrows were raised during the 2018-19 season when Holl averaged 12:29 minutes of ice time while being scratched 71 times in favour of Igor Ozhiganov. The trust in Holl between Mike Babock and Mike Babcock has been night and day. With Keefe at the helm last season, Holl saw an increased role while logging 18:31 minutes of ice time. This season, Holl has been tasked with key defensive matchups and neutralizing the opposition's stars. His ice time has further jumped to 21:33, which illustrates how much trust Keefe has placed in Holl.
I'm not going to lie. I have pointed my finger at Codi Ceci and Jeff Finger in the past. It's easy to single out the plays or mistakes that defenders make with the eye test, but Holl is a special case. He passes the eye test with flying colours and his underlying numbers support this. He has been playing great this year while making defending look effortless. About three weeks ago, Chris Faria of The Hockey Writers wrote an article that highlighted how well Holl was doing this season. At the time of the writing, Holl was ranked first for Corsi For (CF%), Expected Goals For (xGF%), Goals For (GF%), and points at 5v5. Since then, Holl has dropped to second for CF%, third for GF%, third for points, while maintaining his xGF% rank. He may be ranked high in the metrics that Faria has listed, but what you don't know is that Holl also is ranked first in multiple metrics among the Leafs' regular six defenders. Today, we will be delving a bit further into Holl's underlying numbers and defensive plays to see what all the hype is about Holl.
Justin Holl's 5v5 Statistics among Leafs Defenders
According to Natural Stat Trick, Holl is ranked third for 5v5 Shots Against (SA), but when we extrapolate this to per 60 minutes, Holl is ranked first at 24.71. Additionally, Holl is ranked first when it comes to 5v5 Shots For percentage (SF%) at 54.61%. Coupled with CF%, this indicates that Holl is one of the Leafs best puck possession defensemen while the team limits the least amount of shots when he's on ice.
But what about defending the crease and slot area at 5v5? When it comes to High Danger Chances Against (HDCA), Holl is ranked third behind Travis Dermott and Zach Bogosian. This makes sense as Dermott and Bogosian is our third pairing and play favourable matchups due to being sheltered. However, Holl is ranked second when it comes to HDCA/60, the best among our Top 4D. Bogosian is last if anyone is wondering. At the other end of the rink, Holl has produced the second most High Danger Chances For on our team. He is ranked second behind Morgan Rielly at 59. Holl remains second for HDCF/60 at 11.51.
Justin Holl's 5v5 Statistics vs Leafs' Top 6D
| Statistic | Total | Team Rank | Total/60 | Team Rank among Top 6D per 60 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corsi For Percentage (CF%) | 50.94% | 2nd | ||
| Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) | 55.14% | 1st | ||
| Expected Goals For (xGF) | 12.68 | 3rd | 2.47 | 2nd |
| Expected Goals Against (xGA) | 10.32 | 3rd | 2.01 | 1st |
| Goals For (GF) | 14 | Tied 3rd | 2.73 | 4th |
| Goals Against (GA) | 10 | Tied 4th | 1.95 | 4th |
| Shots For (SF) | 148 | 1st | 28.86 | 1st |
| Shots Against (SA) | 123 | 3rd | 23.99 | 1st |
| Shots For Percentage (SF%) | 54.61% | |||
| High Danger Chances For (HDCF) | 59 | 2nd | 11.51 | 2nd |
| High Danger Chances Against (HDCA) | 49 | 3rd | 9.56 | 2nd |
| High Danger Goals For (HDGF) | 6 | 5th | 1.17 | 5th |
| High Danger Goals Against (HDGA) | 6 | 4th | 1.17 | 4th |
| High Danger Goals For Percentage(HDGF%) | 50.00% | Tied 3rd |
Leafs Top 6D 5v5 Defensive Starts
The most interesting thing is that even though Holl has been one of our best defenders, he ranks third on our team for Defensive Starts, behind Muzzin and Brodie. This indicates that Keefe still trusts Muzzin and Brodie which makes sense as they are both seasoned veterans. However, Holl is ranked 2nd on our team for Defensive Zone Start Percentage at 55.56%. Morgan Rielly is our most sheltered defenseman at 5v5 starting a team-low defensive start of 37.5% for anyone wondering.
| Player | Defensive Starts | Defensive Zone Starts Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Muzzin | 47 | 65.38% |
| TJ Brodie | 43 | 39.09% |
| Justin Holl | 40 | 55.56% |
| Morgan Rielly | 39 | 37.5% |
| Zach Bogosian | 22 | 47.83% |
| Travis Dermott | 12 | 42.86% |
Leafs Top 6D Penalty Kill Ice Time
Even though Holl ranks behind Muzzin and Brodie for defensive starts, this does not mean that Keefe doesn't trust Holl. In fact, he has logged the most ice time among our defenders during the penalty kill. Keep in mind that Muzzin has served 15 penalty minutes while Holl has served 8.
With Holl being utilized as one of our best weapons against opponents' power-plays, the Leafs have killed 80% of their penalties which ties them at 14th with Montreal. This season, Holl has logged 3:25 minutes per game on the penalty kill, which ranks him 1st among our defenders. Last season, Holl saw 1:59 minutes per game on the penalty kill. As a result, our penalty kill unit ranked 21st at 77.7%.
It's no coincidence that the Leafs' penalty kill unit has drastically improved when Holl is out there. There are some counter-arguments to this as the Leafs are not playing other top power-play units, such as Dallas or Chicago. However, the North Division features 7 teams which represent 22.6% of the league, and 3 of the teams have power-play units that are ranked in the top 15 (not including Toronto). Those teams are as followed: Edmonton (11th), Winnipeg (13th), and Calgary (15th). Montreal (16th) and Vancouver (20th) are not far behind.
| Player | Time on Ice |
|---|---|
| Justin Holl | 61:43 |
| Jake Muzzin | 59:31 |
| TJ Brodie | 36:21 |
| Zach Bogosian | 34:10 |
| Morgan Rielly | 9:15 |
| Travis Dermott | 1:00 |
Analysing Some of Holl's Offensive and Defensive Plays
Holl Jumps up to Pinch the Puck, Leading to 2 Great Scoring Opportunities
If you have watched Holl this season, you know that he is not scared to jump up on rushes and get himself involved in the offence. That also includes pinching into to help his teammates retain possession of the puck.
William Nylander, Alex Kerfoot, and Muzzin are cycling the puck in this clip. At the beginning of the clip, you can see Holl at the right of your screen as Nylanders retrieves the puck at the half wall. The puck ends up on the other at the end of the clip and Muzzin swings it back around.
Unfortunately, the defender in front of Montreal's net, Shea Weber, has the positional advantage over Pierre Engvall. Due to this, Engvall is unable to retrieve the puck behind the net and lets it go around. Holl jumps up to pinch the puck so Leafs can maintain puck possession in Monreal's zone. As Holl jumps up and entangles himself with Jonathan Drouin, Nylander slides back to the point, taking over Holl's position. Nylander then too jumps up to pinch the puck and manages to retrieve it. He then finds an open Kerfoot who hits the post.
Once Holl and Drouin are done with their entanglement, Drouin retains the puck as it rebounds off the post. After getting up, Holl stick checks Drouin and obtains possession of the puck. Holl then slides the puck over to an open Nylander who also rings it off the post.
Holl Will Make That Pass
You guys might have remembered a few days ago when we lost to Ottawa in overtime, right? Yeah, I'm talking about that loss. The one where Rielly claps one into Evgenii Dadonov instead of passing it to a wide-open Papi.
But don't worry, you know our boy Holl isn't tryna get sneak dissed and will make that pass. A man like Matthews will always have his stick ready and will be waiting for that pass, just like me waiting for food in the microwave at 3 am.
Holl had his eyes on Matt Murray the entire time with his stick angled towards the net. This deceived the Ottawa defenders and they have to respect his shot because of it. As a result, Thomas Chabot has to step up and face Holl. Take notice of Chabot's skates and watch how his feet move forward. Once Holl sees that Chabot has committed to defending his shot, he makes the pass to Matthews and the Leafs get an easy goal.
Holl Actually Has a Shot and Doesn't Aim for the Defenders' Shins
John Tavares carries the puck into Montreal's zone and puts on the brakes as he crosses the blueline. He turns his back towards the goal puts the puck on his forehand looking at Nylander. As a result, Jeff Petry moves into the middle to block any potential pass and Tyler Toffoli cheats over to help out Petry.
Tavares notices that Petry is now on his right, allowing him to skate backwards. This opens up a passing lane for Tavares and the open space allows Holl to skate in and receive the pass.
With two Canadiens with Tavares, the middle of the ice is now open for Holl. Drouin glances at Nylander, who isn't ready to shoot yet, so he focuses his attention back on Holl. Nylander turns his feet towards Holl indicating that he ready for a one-timer. Drouin takes another glance and notices that Nylander has set his feet. In response, he puts his stick out to block any potential pass to Nylander, leaving the middle of the lane up. Holl skates towards the middle, separating himself from Toffoli and giving himself space. He notices that Toffoli is not in any hurry to chase the puck, and with an open lane, Holl locks on the net and fires.
Holl Uses His Speed and Size to Cut off the Zone Entry
The Golden Knights are setting up for a zone entry on power-play in this clip. Reilly Smith is handed the puck and is tasked with the zone entry. As soon as Reilly has possession of the puck, Holl uses his speed to catch up to Reilly. Once the puck is within reach for Holl, he chops at causing Reilly to lose possession. Ilya Mikheyev fights for the puck and sends it down the off once he gets possession.
Muzzin loses possession of the puck in the neutral zone, giving Dadonov a great chance to tie up the same. Once again, Holl uses his speed to catch up to Dadonov. Dadonov has his head up the entire time, looking for a streaking Nick Paul, which telegraphs his motive to Holl. Holl catches wind of this and puts his puck out to the puck, blocking Dadonov from passing across the ice. With his options limited, Dadonov turns and looks to pass to Colin White. Holl is once again one step ahead of Dadonov and reaches in for the puck, blocking the pass. Matthews also does a great job backtracking here lifting White's stick twice so he cannot receive the pass had the puck got to him.
Connor McDavid is coming down the wing and uses his speed to cut towards the middle. Holl contains McDavid by making sure his stick is in front of McDavid as he turns backwards. Due to Holl's stick positioning, McDavid is unable to get a shot off as Holl blocks it.
In the same period later, McDavid is speeding down the wing once again. Holl loses the foot battle but still makes sure that his stick is positioned in front of the puck. Fortunately for Holl, McDavid stumbles and is forced to go to his backhand. McJesus somehow still gets a shot off but Holl's positioning results in a weak backhander.
Justin Holl has been rock solid for the Leafs this season. He is a steady top 4 defender with excellent skating abilities and his speed allows him to neutralize the fastest skaters in the game, such as Conor McDavid. Even with his speed, Holl still relies on his positioning to make plays. He also has great vision and gap control, often killing plays before they even start. Not to mention, the blueliner has a killer cannon of a shot and is not afraid to bomb up to help with the offence. Holl isn't flashy but you can count on him to do the right thing.
The Leafs have finally found the right-handed top 4 defenseman that they so desperately searched for throughout the years. Luckily for them, they have him locked up for two more years at only $2 million.
If you guys have enjoyed this analysis, feel free to check out some other ones here. I've done similar analyses on Mark Giordano, Kyle Connor, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Tony DeAngelo this season. You can also find me on Twitter @vizionsnaps if you have any questions regarding this post. Thank you all for reading and I hope you have a great weekend! :>