From Zero to Hero: Who Is Carter Verhaeghe?
Photo Credit: @FlaPanthers
The first time I heard of Carter Verhaeghe was his selection in the 2013 draft. Being a good yute and all, I scurried to Wikipedia to conduct a likkle research. After seeing that Veraheghe scored 60 points in 129 OHL games, my day was ruined and my disappointment was immeasurable. But it was okay as my LSAT Target Finder class cheered me up on that bright and sunny June day. Those poor yutes.
A few months later, I decided to do a little more research so I booted up EA's NHL Be a GM Mode. Lo and behold, Verhaeghe was rated as a 2.5 red star player. 2.5 stars was already bad enough, but red stars? Come on Dave Nonis! At the time, I thought Verhaeghe would amount to nothing and that was confirmed a few years later when Verhaeghe was packaged with 4 other players for Maple Leafs legend, Michael Grabner. Off he went to Long Island, but boy was I wrong.
Verhaeghe toiled around for a few years in the Islanders' system but it wasn't until his move to Tampa Bay where he started showing signs of promise. The winger scored 48 points in 58 games for the Syracuse Crunch before breaking out as the 2018-19 AHL scoring leader the following season. Verhaeghe led the league with 82 points in 76 games, scoring 34 goals. After a few stops in the ECHL and AHL, Verhaeghe spent last season with the big boys, scoring 13 points in 52 games. Tampa Bay general manager Julien BriseBois deemed Verhaeghe too expensive to re-sign and thus, the reigning Stanley Cup champion took his ring with him to South Beach, joining the Florida Panthers. But it's okay as these 31 Lightning fans agreed with 13 year old me.
But Micah Blake McCurdy? That guy has a galaxy brain. Micah was ahead of his time and saw why Bill Zito gave a $2 million contract to a 13 point player. At the time of his signing, Verhaeghe had a rating of +10 xGF and +1 xGA, according to Micah.
Not many games yet for Verhaeghe (2x1m with Florida) but what there is looks very good. pic.twitter.com/cjlet5sXuZ
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) October 9, 2020
Not bad for someone who was rated 2.5 red stars.
Verhaeghe's 5v5 Production (via Natural Stat Trick)
Verhaeghe has been a revelation so far this season, scoring 30 points in 36 games. The winger has potted 17 goals along with 13 apples, good enough for third among Panthers skaters. Verhaeghe has seen a huge increase in his ice time, skating 14:53 a night which is a huge increase from last season's average of 8:52. With the increased ice time, Verhaeghe stepped up with the extra responsibility and improved all his metric across the board.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Verhaeghe is ranked 34th for points per 60 minutes among skaters with 300 minutes. With 2.46 points per 60, it ties him with Elias Pettersson and puts him one ahead of David Pastrnak. Those two are no Verhaeghe but I think they're really good too, right? His 22 5v5 points rank him 12th among skaters in the league.
This season, Verhaeghe is scoring 1.34 goals per 60 which is up from last season's mark of 1.04 per 60. Verhaeghe has scored 14 even-strength goals this season which only puts him behind Mikko Rantanen and Connor McDavid, according to Mike Kelly.
Carter Verhaeghe has 14 even-strength goals. Only Rantanen and McDavid have more.
— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) March 31, 2021
He has 43 rush chances at ES. Only McDavid has more.
Puck recovery and battle win ability still elite. Thriving in FLA.
His goal rate isn't the only thing that has improved as Verhaeghe has also doubled his primary assist rate from last season (0.26 per 60), producing a rate of 0.56 per 60 this year. Moreover, Verhaeghe has improved his shot pace, shooting 8.17 shots per 60 which is also up from last year pace of 6.9 per 60.
However, there are some signs of unsustainability. Verhaeghe has doubled his secondary assist rate from last season (0.26), dishing out 0.56 secondary assists per 60. Moreover, Verhaeghe's IPP is sitting at 73.33 which is higher than last season's mark of 66.67. Additionally, Verhaeghe is shooting 16.44% on 73 shots this season. This isn't a bad thing as Verhaeghe shot 15.09% on 53 shots last season. This may indicate that Verhaeghe is just a sniper who is reliant on shot efficiency than luck. Take Mark Scheifele, J.T. Miller, or T.J. Oshie for example.
| Season | GP | TOI/GP | Goals/60 | Assists/60 | Primary Assists/60 | Secondary Assists/60 | Points/60 | Shots/60 | IPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | 52 | 8:52 | 1.04 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 1.56 | 6.90 | 66.67 |
| 2020-21 | 36 | 14:53 | 1.34 | 1.12 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 2.46 | 8.17 | 73.33 |
Verhaeghe's 5v5 On-Ice Production (via Natural Stat Trick)
Verhaeghe has a Corsi-For percentage of 58.31, which is up from last season's rating of 55.37. This indicates that Verhaeghe is driving more possession even with the huge increase in ice time. In addition, his High-Danger Corsi-For has seen a huge increase from 51.67 to 65.28 this season. Furthermore, Verhaeghe has seen has expected goal percentage increase from 54.93 to 62.69.
Nevertheless, there is some luck on Verhaeghe's side this year. Verhaeghe has seen a bump in his on-ice shooting percentage. His on-ice shooting percentage of 7.09% last season has jumped to 8.65% this season. Moreover, his PDO mark of 960 last year has increased to 1027 this season.
| Season | CF% | HDCF% | xG% | onSH% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | 55.37 | 51.67 | 54.93 | 7.09 | 960 |
| 2020-21 | 58.31 | 65.28 | 62.69 | 8.65 | 1027 |
Verhaeghe's Isolated 5v5 Impact (via @IneffectiveMath)
Remember how Verhaeghe had a rating of +10 xGF for even-strength offence and +1 xGF for even-strength defence at the time of his signing. Well guess what, Verhaeghe has also improved his on-ice impact at 5v5 this season. According to Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath), Verhaeghe has an xGF of +18.5% and an xGA of -6.9%. Not only has Verhaeghe been killing it offensively, but he has also improved his defensive game. This indicates that Verhaeghe has become a solid 200-foot player this season.
Verhaeghe's Unblock Shot Rates (via @IneffectiveMath)
Verhaeghe has been an important piece of the Panthers' offence and defence this year and this can be seen with McCurdy's Unblock Shot Rate Model. According to McCurdy, Flordia has generated an xG/60 of 3.37 (+34%) while Verhaeghe is on the ice. When Verhaeghe is off, Florida's xG/60 drops to 2.12 (-16).
On the other side of the rink, Florida has an xGA/60 of 1.98 (-21) while Verhaeghe is on the ice. When he is off, Florida's xGA/60 increases to 2.24 (-11%). This demonstrates that Verhaeghe has been crucial to the Panthers this season and their play becomes worse when he's off the ice.
Verhaeghe's Unblock Shot Rates (via @IneffectiveMath)
Verhaeghe has been an important piece of the Panthers' offence and defence this year and this can be seen with McCurdy's Unblock Shot Rate Model. According to McCurdy, Flordia has generated an xG/60 of 3.37 (+34%) while Verhaeghe is on the ice. When Verhaeghe is off, Florida's xG/60 drops to 2.12 (-16). On the other side of the rink, Florida has an xGA/60 of 1.98 (-21) while Verhaeghe is on the ice. When he is off, Florida's xGA/60 increases to 2.24 (-11%). This demonstrates that Verhaeghe has been crucial to the Panthers this season and their play becomes worse when he's off the ice.
Verhaeghe's Power-Play Production
Verhaeghe has one power-play point this season. Yes, you have read that correct. 1 of Verhaeghe's 30 points this season have come on the power-play (PP). Prior to Aaron Ekblad's injury, Florida ran a 3F2D PP setup with Ekblad and Keith Yandle at the top. Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Patric Hörnqvist rounded out the other three spots. There wasn't enough space on the top unit, thus, Verhaeghe was relegated to the second unit.
The winger has seen 38 minutes on the PP this season and the Panthers has an xG/60 of 6.72 (-5%) while Verhaeghe on the ice. While Verhaeghe is off the ice, the Panther's PP sees an xG/60 of 8.66 (+23).
Ekblad's injury opens up a spot on the top unit, which gives Verhaeghe an opportunity to seize the opportunity but he faces some competition. Unlike Ekblad, Verhaeghe shoots left while Owen Tippett is a right-handed shooter which makes him a natural fit on the PP. Tippett has a great shot and was the first-choice replacement for Ekblad.
Looks like Owen Tippett will get power play shooter chance tonight with Ekblad out. #FlaPanthers
— Steve Goldstein (@goldieonice) March 30, 2021
Yandle Huberdeau Wennberg Connolly Tippett
3 of Fla top 5 on PP out with injury.
Conclusion
Verhaeghe has been the ultimate zero to hero story this season. Being stuck in limbo down in the ECHL and AHL for multiple years, he has worked his way up to the Panthers' top line. He is currently having a breakout season, scoring 30 points in 36 games with only one point coming on the PP, and has been an integral part of the Panthers this season.
In Barkov's absence, Verhaeghe has stepped up to the plate scoring five goals and assisting one in five games. Verhaeghe has also been one of the league's top players when it comes to even-strength production and is ranked 4th for 5v5 goals and 12th for 5v5 points. The former Niagara Ice Dog Captain is making his mark and the hockey world is finally starting to take notice.