Nikolaj Ehlers Is the League's Best Kept Secret
Photo Credit: Darcy Finley (NHLI via Getty Images)
When we talk about underrated players in the league, the term is often loosely tossed around and can be perceived differently depending on whom you are talking to. Jakub Vrana, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Shea Theodore, and Samuel Girard are often considered as the league’s best-underrated players by the hockey analytic world. Florida Panthers star duo, Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau, were considered as two of the most underrated stars in the league once upon a time. While others may consider Brian Dumoulin or Erik Černák as the underrated star who keeps their team well oiled and running. The meaning of underrated depends on the context of how it is used.
Nevertheless, there is only one thing that I know for sure, and that is, Nikolaj Ehlers is one of the most underrated players in the league, if not the most. Ehlers has often been overshadowed by his peers, with Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and now the departed, Patrik Laine, all receiving more media coverage. The Danish forward has put aside individual accomplishments, sacrificing his performance in favour of team success. Winnipeg Jets head coach, Paul Maurice, has built his team’s offence around the aforementioned players and this can be seen with Ehlers deployment on the second power-play unit.
Ehlers' 5v5 Production
With limited minutes this season, Ehlers has been one of the league’s most efficient 5v5 players, scoring at a point-per-game pace with 29 points in 28 games. He is only second to Scheifele (37) for team scoring. But that is not totally a bad thing as Ehlers lead all Jets forwards for goals per 60 (1.30), points per 60 (2.60), shots per 60 (9.67), and is the only forward to have a positive Corsi at 50.50 %, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Among Jets forwards with over 100 games played in the last three seasons, Ehlers rank second in goals (43), third in assists (49), second in points (91), and is tied with Connor for first in shots (370). Most importantly, Ehlers achieved all this while skating 14:08 a night, good enough to rank him 4th. Ehlers also leads all skaters for goals per 60 (1.13), points per 60 (2.38), shots per 60 (9.69), and is second for assists per 60 (1.26).
According to Micah Blake McCurdy’s (@IneffectiveMath) 5v5 Unblocked Shot Rates Model, the Jets produce shots with an xG% of 2.65 per 60 which is 4% greater than the league average when Ehler is on the ice Without Ehlers, the Jets have an xG% of 2.13 per 60 which is 15% less than the league average.
5v5 Production in Comparison to The League
But how does Ehlers stack up against the rest? Well among forwards with at least 15 games played this season, Ehlers is ranked 31st for points per 60 minutes at 2.60. Ehlers is sitting comfortably between Toronto Maple Leafs star duo, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. As for goals per 60, Ehlers is ranked 22nd at 1.41 and is smack dab in the middle between two of the league’s well-known snipers in Mikko Rantanen and Brendan Gallagher. Regarding shots per 60, Ehlers is ranked 34th with 9.67, which puts him only 0.01 back of Matthews.
If we expand this to the last three seasons with at least 100 games played, Ehlers is ranked 23rd for points per 60, 13th for goals per 60, and 23rd for shots per 60. This ranks him ahead of the like of Patrice Bergeron, John Tavares, and Max Pacioretty.
Why Is Ehlers So Underrated?
So what exactly makes Ehlers underrated you may ask? Ehlers has one of the best transition games in the league and has emerged as a top puck carrier with his dynamic skating. According to @ShutDownLine and @CJTDevil’s AZ3 Performance Tool, Ehlers is ranked in the 100th percentile for control zone entries and exits per 60 in the last four years.
The special thing about this is that not even elite skaters like Connor McDavid, Nathan Mackinnon, or Patrick Kane can have a claim to this feat.
Moreover, Ehlers is one of the most efficient at exiting and entering the zone while having possession of the puck. He is also great at setting up rush plays.
Thanks to @NHLJetsNation, I was able to find some great examples of Ehlers’ transition offence.
Example 1: Ehlers glides through the ice setting up a high-danger scoring opportunity
Ehlers completes a zone exit and tears through the neutral and offensive zone. His speed pushes back the defenders, opening up passing lanes to his streaking teammates. Ehlers centres the puck and Paul Stastny, who was crashing the net, is able to find a goal.
Stastny extends the lead to 2-0!! #NHLJets #WPGWhiteout pic.twitter.com/LBW1hjdf10
— JetsNation (@NHLJetsNation) April 28, 2018
Example 2: Ehlers uses his speed to create space for his teammates
Ehlers blitz through the neutral zone and completes a zone entry with possession. He takes two defenders with him while dropping the puck to Jack Roslovic who plays a nice little delayed pass-and-go with Tucker Poolman. Ehlers is a great skater and is able to create a lot of space for his teammates, all while keeping the opponent’s attention on him. Notice how Roslovic and Poolman were streaking behind and had a ton of space to play with the puck?
Nov 30 2019: Nikolaj Ehlers enters the offensive zone, passes to Jack Roslovic. Roslovic passes to Tucker Poolman, who passes back, and Roslovi tucks the puck past Jack Campbell to cut the deficit for the #NHLJets to 2-1 against the #LAKings pic.twitter.com/RKfJRYUs51
— JetsNation (@NHLJetsNation) November 29, 2020
Example 3: Ehlers goes coast-to-coast, circling around the offensive zone and finding an open Laine
Ehlers uses his speed to evade a hit from Brad Marchand and completes a zone exit. He coasts through the neutral zone before completing a zone entry. The defenders are not able to keep up with Ehlers speed, allowing him to take the puck wide and around the net. Ehlers finds an open Laine who buries the puck with ease.
Ehlers has shaped up to be an elite player who you might now say is immensely underrated. The Danish winger is one of the league’s best transition players and is king when it comes to zone entries and exits. He uses his speed to create space for teammates and finds them with ease with his amazing vision. Not to mention, his arsenal also features a wicked shot with a quick release.
With Laine's departure and Blake Wheeler's eventual decline, the next few years of Ehlers' career will be interesting to follow. Ehlers recently turned 25 and is approaching his prime. Will Ehlers finally secure a spot on that elusive top line and gain recognition for his elite transition offence or will the Jets trade away his bargain contract? Only time will tell.