Is Rasmus Dahlin a Bust?
Photo Credit: Kevin Hoffman (USA TODAY Sports)
If you really had to ask yourself that, you don't really watch hockey do you? I noticed recently on Twitter lately that a lot of people were calling Dahlin a bust which sparked up the idea for this analysis.
This so-called bust put up 44 points as an 18-year old in his rookie season. Apparently, he surpassed Bobby Orr for points. I think Orr turned out to be a decent player, not sure about that so someone please let me know. Dahlin was only second behind Phil Housley for points as an 18-year old defenseman. Not bad for a bust I would say.
Dahlin's 5v5 per 60 Minutes Statistics (via Natural Stat Trick)
When comparing Dahlin's 5v5 per 60 minutes statistics, we can see that his point total was inflated by having a higher secondary assist rate in his rookie season. But in his second season, Dahlin doubles his primary assist rate which indicates that he's become a better play driver with his teammates finishing more on their opportunities. Two other statistics which stand out to me in Dahlin's second season are his average TOI and shot pace. Under current head coach, Ralph Kreuger, Dahlin took a step back with his ice time dropping by more than 2 minutes last season. Dahlin also started shooting less and has seen his shot pace decrease under Krueger. It was not a secret that Dahlin was a key part of the team's system under former head coach, Housley. Yes, the same Housley that Dahlin was behind in rookie defenseman scoring.
| Age | Season | GP | TOI/GP | Goals/60 | Assists/60 | Primary Assists/60 | Secondary Assists/60 | Points/60 | Shots/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 2018-19 | 82 | 17:09 | 0.17 | 0.77 | 0.26 | 0.51 | 0.94 | 5.25 |
| 19 | 2019-20 | 59 | 15:03 | 0.13 | 1.55 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 1.28 | 3.78 |
| 20 | 2020-21 | 24 | 16:42 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.3 | 0.15 | 0.45 | 4.79 |
Dahlin's Underlying Statistics (via Natural Stat Trick)
This next section explores Dahlin's underlying statistics and examines how they have changed in Dahlin's short career. Once of Dahlin's struggle this season is his ability to find the back of the net, which can be blamed on bad puck luck. Dahlin has a higher individual expected goal than last season even though he has zero goals this year, which can be attributed to shooting 0%. Dahlin's shooting percentage in the last two years is 3.35% and 3.57, which indicates that he's shooting low this year. Moreover, Dahlin has an oiSH% of 4.62% and PDO of 928 this season which also indicates that his teammates are having trouble finding the net too.
The most interesting thing is that Dahlin's Corsi For Percentage (CF%) has regressed since his rookie season. Dahlin had a CF% of 51.91 in his rookie season which was lowered to 50.66 last season and 48.21 this season. Furthermore, both his HDCF% and xG% have both decreased in consecutive season. So not only has Dahlin and his team generating fewer chances with Krueger at the helm, they are giving up more scoring opportunities to their opponents. Dahlin's underlying statistics have regressed under Krueger which demonstrates that he is not being utilized to his full potential.
| Age | Season | ixG/60 | SH% | oiSH% | PDO | CF% | HDGF% | xG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 2018-19 | 0.21 | 3.25 | 7.34 | 999 | 51.91 | 49.80 | 51.09 |
| 19 | 2018-20 | 0.15 | 3.57 | 8.31 | 1021 | 50.66 | 45.95 | 46.33 |
| 20 | 2021-21 | 0.19 | 0 | 4.62 | 928 | 48.21 | 45.45 | 45.99 |
Dahlin's Controlled Zone Entry and Exits Rates (via @ShutdownLine and @CJTDevil)
Under Housley, Dahlin was tasked with entering and exiting the zone while maintaining puck possession. According to hockey statistician, Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine), Dahlin was ranked in the 84th percentile for Controlled Zone Entries per 60 and 94th for Controlled Zone Exits per 60 with Housley as the coach. Under Krueger's first season in charge, Dahlin's Controlled Zone Entries per 60 has dropped to the 69th percentile with Controlled Zone Exits dropping to 76th.
It's not just Dahlin too. Former Bufffalo Sabres GM, Jason Botterill, acquired a couple of puck-moving defensemen in Brandon Montour and Colin Miller, and they too have seen their zone entry and exit rates drop under Krueger. Kruger's system restricts his defenseman from being involved in the offensive zone transition which does more harm than good.
| Player | 2018-19 Controlled Zone Entries per 60 | 2018-19 Controlled Zone Exits per 60 | 2019-20 Controlled Zone Entries per 60 | 2019-20 Controlled Zone Exits per 60 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin | 84th | 94th | 69th | 76th | |
| Brandon Montour | 100th | 64th | 45th | 28th | |
| Colin Miller | 54th | 72nd | 34th | 53rd |
Dahlin's Isolated 5v5 Impact (via @IneffectiveMath)
Micah Blake McCurdy's Isolated Impact Model does a great job visualizing how much Dahlin has regressed under Krueger. McCurdy is one of the brightest minds in the hockey analytic world and you can view more of his work on his Twitter @IneffectiveMath. We will be taking a look at McCurdy's Isolated 5v5 Impact Model, which measures the Expected Goals For (xGF) and Against (xGA) for players.
We can see that McCurdy's model agree with the previously stated underlying statistics. Dahlin had a +1.7 xGF% in his rookie season which indicates that he had a positive impact on his team's offence. However, Dahlin's xGF% has dipped in both seasons under Krueger. Under Housley, Dahlin did not negatively affect his team's defence and once again, Dahlin's xGA% is negative with Krueger. In fact, Dahlin has been a net negative in both of his seasons with Krueger as the head coach.
Still think that Krueger is a positive influence on Dahlin? Take a look at this.
Rasmus Dahlin is a far different player at 5-on-5 under Ralph Krueger than he was as a rookie with Phil Housley as coach. pic.twitter.com/WYqiDoKwYh
— Lance Lysowski (@LLysowski) March 8, 2021
Sabres beat reporter, Lance Lysowski, tweeted a photo of @EvolvingHockey's EV and PP RAPM model for Dahlin recently. Purple means good, red means bad for anyone who does not understand the chart. EvolvingHockey's RAPM model are used for skater evaluations and accounts for Goals For, xG For, Corsi For, xG Against, and Corsi Against (All per 60 minutes). Once again, Dahlin's performance under Housley and Kruger has been night and day.
Dahlin's Rookie Season Isolated 5v5 Impact vs Other Notable Defenceman (via @IneffectiveMath)
I compiled a chart below to see how Dahlin's rookie season stack up against the rookie seasons of past Norris winners and highly touted picks. Dahlin had a better rookie season than other first overall defensemen, such as Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, and Victor Hedman. Guess what these three players have in common? They have won the Norris trophy. Players such as Hedman, Doughty, Dougie Hamilton, and Seth Jones are hailed as defensemen with elite defensive players. Well guess what, Dahlin had a better defensive rookie season than these players. Among these players, Dahlin was ranked 4th for average time on ice and skated more than Hedman, Doughty, Karlsson, and Pietrangelo. Keep in mind, he did all this while being a year younger too.
| Player | Age | Isolated 5v5 Offensive Impact (xGF) | Isolated 5v5 Defensive Impact (xGA) | Average TOI | Average PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin | 18 | +1.7 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:50 |
| Aaron Ekblad | 18 | +9.4 | +0.1 | 17:21 | 2:47 |
| Quin Hughes | 20 | +7.6 | +0.8 | 21:53 | 3:49 |
| Miro Heiskanen | 19 | +5.1 | -0.6 | 18:52 | 2:26 |
| Victor Hedman | 19 | +3 | +12.3 | 15:59 | 1:20 |
| Cale Makar | 21 | +2.5 | -4.8 | 16:09 | 3:44 |
| Dougie Hamilton | 19 | +0.5 | +2.6 | 14:16 | 1:58 |
| Erik Johnson | 19 | -2.1 | -3.2 | 13:24 | 3:41 |
| Alex Pietrangelo | 21 | -3.1 | -7.2 | 16:04 | 3:00 |
| Morgan Rielly | 19 | -3.2 | -0.2 | 14:54 | 1:56 |
| Roman Josi | 21 | -5.3 | -0.7 | 15:21 | 1:20 |
| Erik Karlsson | 19 | -7 | +5.7 | 15:42 | 3:25 |
| Seth Jones | 19 | -8.2 | +5.4 | 15:24 | 2:01 |
| Drew Doughty | 19 | -10.6 | +4.7 | 15:55 | 3:40 |
Dahlin's Age-19 Season vs Other Notable Defenceman (via Natural Stat Trick)
Last year, Dahlin finished his season with 40 points in 59 games. This was good enough for a 55 point pace season as a 19-year old. I compiled a chart below to see how Dahlin's age-19 season stack up against the age-19 seasons of past Norris winners and highly touted picks.
We can already see that Dahlin has scored more points in his age-19 season than every player on the list. Dahlin's CF% is second only to Karlsson and we all know how much of a possession monster Karlsson turned out to be.
However, I do acknowledge that points are not a great metric to evaluate defencemen. For example, just look at how much Tyler Myers scored in his first season and pop into a Vancouver Canucks match to see the impact that Myer has on the game.
| Player | Season | Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points | CF% | 5v5 CF% | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin | 2018-19 | 59 | 4 | 36 | 40 (55) | 57.06 | 51.91 | |
| Aaron Ekblad | 2015-16 | 78 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 55.33 | 51.91 | |
| Miro Heiskanen | 2018-19 | 82 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 51.33 | 50.26 | |
| Erik Johnson | 2007-08 | 69 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 56.61 | 50.20 | |
| Drew Doughty | 2008-09 | 81 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 52.34 | 49.50 | |
| Morgan Rielly | 2013-14 | 73 | 2 | 25 | 27 | 48.51 | 44.48 | |
| Erik Karlsson | 2009-10 | 60 | 5 | 21 | 26 (35) | 59.43 | 54.62 | |
| Victor Hedman | 2009-10 | 74 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 46.53 | 48.82 | |
| Seth Jones | 2013-14 | 77 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 49.45 | 49.52 | |
| Dougie Hamilton | 2012-13 | 42 | 5 | 11 | 16 (31) | 58.97 | 55.98 | |
| Quin Hughes | 2018-19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 56.32 | 53.06 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo | Pietrangelo did not establish himself as a regular until he was 21 (2010-11). | |||||||
| Roman Josi | Josi did not establish himself as a regular until he was 21 (2011-12). | |||||||
| Cale Makar | Makar did not establish himself as a regular until he was 21 (2019-20). |
I know sometimes text can be hard to digest so I will include a few video clips on what makes Dahlin so special.
Strong skating ability and transition game
Dahlin has excelled as a puck mover with his strong skating abilities, allowing him to easily fend off opposing forecheckers and complete controlled zone exits. Gliding through the neutral zone, Dahlin can be counted on to secure a zone entry and facilitate scoring opportunities for himself or his teammates.
Example 1: Dahlin dances around the defence before finding a Mittelstadt and creating a scoring chance
A few days ago, Jack Han (@JhanHky) captured another instance of Dahlin using his skating to generate a goal.
Dahlin makes a risky play high in the OZ.
— Jack Han (@JhanHky) March 7, 2021
Maybe he wants all of us to die from high blood pressure.
But most likely he's just trying to draw a 1v2 and create space for his teammates to attack the net.
Skinner scores on the ensuing chance. pic.twitter.com/893342UfUj
Dahlin dances in the Islanders' zone, before drawing 2 defenders and finding an open Casey Mittelstadt. Mittelstadt sends the puck up to the net and Jeff Skinner is able to capitalize on the ensuing chaos.
Example 2: Dahlin goes coast-to-coast before dancing around the opponents
Dahlin easily escapes Dustin Brown and completes a controlled zone exit.
He glides through the neutral zone taking the puck wide and around net.
With Derek Forbort behind him and Alex Iafallo closing in, Dahlin skates around and keeps his head up the entire time. Dahlin changes to a passing position forcing Iafallo to back up and respect his pass. With Iafallo off him and space ahead, Dahlin shakes off Forbort and carries the puck to the point.
Dahlin walks the blueline and finds an opening for his shot.
Example 3: Dahlin goes coast-to-coast in his NHL debut
Dahlin picks up the puck in his own zone and effortlessly glides through the neutral zone, before taking a shot on net.
Example 3: "Dahlin calmy knives through the defense like butter"
Here's a clip from @Hockey_Robinson which features Dahlin slicing through the New Jersey Devils' defence. Hot knife through butter. Let's see the things he did in the video. Controlled zone exit? ✅ Head fake two Devils in the neutral zone? ✅ Controlled zone entry? ✅ Dances through a 1v4? ✅. Kids nutty I tell ya.
Jumping up in the play
Dahlin's ability to jump up in the play and join the rush is one of the biggest assets he has. He has great vision and is able to read the play well, putting himself in space where his teammates can find him.
Example 1: Dahlin is a stay-at-home defenseman
Krueger has been restricting Dahlin's involvement in the offence and here is a good example of Han explaining this.
This is BUF26 Rasmus Dahlin. One of the best Ds in the world at getting into the rush. We don't see him in the frame after the exit.
— Jack Han (@JhanHky) March 7, 2021
BUF's plan should be the following:
1) Get Dahlin a puck touch on every rush pic.twitter.com/BE1JuLObJU
Example 2: Dahlin joins the rush and gets a great scoring opportunity
Dahlin joins Evan Rodrigues in the rush to create a 2-on-2 scenario. Dahlin sidesteps Jake Dotchin and opens up some space for a shot.
Great hands, terrific vision
Example 1: Dahlin dekes through his opponent, find his teammate for an easy goal
Dahlin dangles through Nick Seeler, sliding the puck to an open McCabe who finishes the pass. Keep in mind, Dahlin did all that and avoided a hit from a charging Marcus Foligno
Example 2: Happy feet with a couple of passes is a recipe for success
Dahlin demonstrates his hand-eye coordination by batting the puck out of the air before toying with Carl Hagelin. He finds a streaking Marcus Johansson and passes in Olofsson who snipes it.
Example 3: Dahlin dangles through a defender before recovering the puck on one knee. He glides through the offensive zone, creating a scoring chance
Just watch.
When you think of defenseman who can walk in on their opponents, Erik Karlsson, Cale Makar, and Quinn Hughes are most likely the few that comes to mind. Dahlin is the epitome of a modern-day puck-moving defenseman.
In Dahlin's first training camp, Housley had this to say about him, "his timing is really impeccable. He jumps in the play at the right time. When he beats a guy, he moves the puck right away and gets it up ice. Overall, I just like the way he’s developed so far in this camp.” Dahlin is a player with incredible skating with great poise. His hockey IQ helps him process the game at a high level, which explains why he was an amazing fit in Housley's system.
However, Dahlin's development has become stagnant under Krueger. Dahlin has been forced to take a back seat and instead of playing to his strengths, Krueger has instructed Dahlin to focus on the defensive aspect of his game. When asked if Dahlin has a green light out on the ice, Kruger answers with "Everybody knows when you’re that talented, the game without the puck is where you have to do your work, and your homework." Dahlin is a player who needs the puck on his stick and the Sabres will just create more issues, rather than solving them, by suppressing Dahlin.
Swedish star footballer, Zlatan Ibrahimovic once had this to say about his time at Barcelona FC. I think it fits the bill for Dahlin and the Sabres.
"You bought a Ferrari but you drive it like a Fiat."