Sleeper Watch: Cam Atkinson
Introduction
If you missed out on Bjorkstrand, don’t worry. The Blue Jackets have another offensive weapon on their team and his name is Cam Atkinson. Atkinson has been one of the league's best high volume shooters in recent years, making him an attractive fantasy hockey asset. We will be taking a look at what went wrong from Atkinson last season and what we should expect from him this season.
Last Season
Last season was not the best for Atkinson. Atkinson struggled with Panarin's departure and found himself on the fourth line at times. After scoring 0.52 goals/game and 0.84 pts/game during the 2018-2019 season, it fell to 0.27 and 0.59 last season, respectively. Atkinson also scored 17 secondary assists during Panarin's last season, having never topped 9 secondary assists. The writing was on the wall with obvious signs of regression from Panarin and Duchene's departures. Note, we will be calling Panarin's second and last season in Columbus as the "Panarin season" in this analysis.
Atkinson began the season scoring 4 goals in 28 games but picked up the pace with 8 goals in his next 16 games before re-aggravating his sprained ankle injury. Atkinson scored 12 points in 13 games in the months of December and January before getting shut down. However, he picked up from where he left off tailing 3 goals and 8 points on 20 SOG (2.5/game) in 8 post-season games. This is also including a game where Atkinson had 0 SOG in 39:49 TOI in Game 3 versus Tampa Bay.
He was also one of Columbus' key players during the playoffs averaging 22:47 TOI, third behind Nick Foligno (30:30) and PLD (22:47). This is an uptick of almost 5 minutes (4:56) from 17:59 ATOI during the regular season. If we remove the 5OT game outlier, it drops to 20:21 ATOI which is still greater than what Atkinson averaged during the regular season and cements him as one of Tortella's offensive weapons.
This Season's Preview
Per Jeff Svoboda, the Blue Jackets' team reporter, Atkinson has started training camp on line one with Foligno and the newly acquired Max Domi. However, this was changed the next day when Svoboda reported that Atkinson's line has been changed to line 2. It's safe to say that Atkinson has been demoted to the second line as PLD is Columbus' franchise player and they wouldn't put their disgruntled star player on the second line, unless Torts does Torts things.
Svoboda has also reported that Atkinson is on PP2 with Jones, Bjorkstrand, PLD, and Foligno. However, using the same logic as above, this should be PP1 as PLD is on this unit and Jones has quarterbacked PP1 for the last few years. Being on PP1 should still boost Atkinson's fantasy value.
Injury Concerns
There are some injury concerns regarding Atkinson though. He missed 11 games during the 2017-2018 season with a fractured right foot injury and the remaining 14 games of last season with a right ankle sprain injury. Not to mention, a few games during last seasons' playoffs being deemed "unfit to play." Outside of those two major injuries, Atkinson has played at least 78 games in 5/7 seasons since establishing himself as a regular during the 2013–14 season.
The Demotion to Line 2 and Addition of Max Domi
Losing his spot one line one is not necessarily a bad thing as one can argue that Max Domi is more offensively gifted player than PLD. There are also some injury concerns regarding Bjorkstrand so Atkinson still has a chance to take back his spot on line 1. Domi is two seasons removed from scoring 72 points in 82 games and PLD has never topped 61 points. We can also argue that Domi is a better playmaker for Atkinson as PLD highest assist total is 34, which came during one the "Panarin season". Domi has achieved 34 assists in 3 of his 5 seasons since being drafted, one of which came during his rookie season. During the season Domi scored 72 points, he shot 13.8% scoring 28 goals on 203 shots. This is an increase of 3.6% from his career average of 10.2%, but Domi is not known for scoring goals and his playmaking should propel Atkinson. Furthermore, Atkinson has already surpassed 60 points prior to playing with Panarin, scoring 62 points during the 2016-17 season with Brandon Dubinsky as his centre.
Shot Percentage, Rate, and Production
Last season, Atkinson shot 8.1%, the lowest in his career, which is a far cry from his career average of 11.5%. In the "Panarin season", Atkinson shot 13.9%, a career-high. The uptick in shooting percentage can be attributed to the quality of passes from Panarin. Expect a bounce-back in shooting percentage this season.
Atkinson was still on pace for 275 shots last season (3.36/game), which would have been the second-highest in his career. He put up 3.36/game ranking him 12th among wingers. One can argue that the decrease in shooting percentage last season can be attributed to his ankle injuries and the quality of scoring chances due to Panarin's departure.
In the last three seasons, Atkinson has put up 674 SOG. This ranks him 21st among forwards and 13th among wingers, above players such as Zibanejad, Aho, Draisaitl, Barkov, Panarin, and Stamkos. Note, Zibanejad and Stamkos would be ranked above Atkinson if they weren't so injury prone. In the last five seasons, Atkinson has been ranked 18th among forwards and 12th among wingers. Atkinson has consistently been one of the league's top high-volume shooters, just sitting outside of the top 10.
Had last season not ended early and Atkinson shot his career average, he would have been on pace for another 30 goal season.
Conclusion
Atkinson is on a line with a better playmaker which should make him a better triggerman. He still has exposure to PP1 and should still get a bit of his production from there. Moreover, Atkinson's shot production is still top 15 among wingers and expect a bounce back after shooting low. If this was an 82 game season, we should expect a 25-30 goal season and 55-65 points with at least 250 SOG. However, this is a 56 game season so expect a 15-20 goal season with 35-45 points and at least 170 SOG if Atkinson stays healthy.
Atkinson's Yahoo ADP is currently 158.4 with his ADR 14.1. Atkinson is a great pick for anyone looking for a high volume shooter and you should be able to find him in the 14-15th round. Or hope your fellow league members don't see this so you can buy low.
Do you guys think Atkinson will bounce back this year? Columbus is in the Central Division which has good defensive teams such as CAR, NSH, DAL, and TBL. The Central will be a tough division to play in and this article from The Hockey Writers does a great job of explaining why. I personally think Atkinson is a great sleeper candidate and have already drafted him.
When Atkinson fractured his right foot in the 2017-18 season, Columbus went 4-6-1, scoring 24 and giving 37. After returning, his team went 2-4-1 but Atkinson had five points in those seven games. He led the team in HDCF% (high-danger chances-for by percentage) and GF% (goals for percentage). Basically put, Blue Jackets were scoring 83% of total goals and generating two of every three high-danger scoring chances when Atkinson was on ice. Atkinson can still produce if Columbus is not doing well.
Even though Atkinson is 31, he will still get plenty of chances to produce. Let’s just hope Domi keeps him off the 4th line :>