What's Going on With Mika Zibanejad? A Statistical Analysis
Photo credit: Jared Silber
It is no secret that Mika Zibanejad is struggling this season. After potting 41 goals and tallying 75 points in 57 games last season, good enough for a 59 goal, 108 point pace, many thought Zibanejad has finally reached the upper echelon of hockey and is fulfilling the potential that beloved former Ottawa Senators general manager, Bryan Murray, once saw. However, it’s a different story this season. The New York Rangers star centre has 3 points in 12 games and his performance has left a lot to be desired this season. His 3 points rank him seventh among all Rangers players and tie him with Filip Chytil and Colin Backwell. To put Zibanejad’s performance in perspective, Chytil and Backwell have the same amount of points as Zibanejad but have only played 5 and 4 games, respectively. This brings us to our question for today, what is wrong with Mika Zibanejad?
Without taking a look at any advanced statistics from Zibanejad this season, one can easily chalk up Zibanejad’s poor performance to contracting COVID-19 and shooting high last season. Zibanejad missed the start of training camp due to COVID-19 and his full first practice was 3 days prior to the Rangers’ opening game. Manchester United star, Paul Pogba, has mentioned that COVID-19 has exhausted him and it took him weeks just to get back into shape. Utah Jazz's Rudy Gobert, the first NBA player to contract COVID-19, has also mentioned that the virus has negatively affected his physical condition. Zibanejad shot 19.7% and had an Individual Point Percentage (IPP) of 80.65% in all situations last season. Both were career highs which makes his fall from grace much less surprising. But when we delve a bit deeper into Zibanejad's underlying numbers, Zibanejad is not just regressing to the mean. The Swedish star is currently experiencing insane bad puck luck.
Zibanejad's Performance at All Situations
Zibanejad is currently shooting 2.56% in all situations this season. Prior to this season, Zibanejad has a career shooting percentage of 12.9%. The center has shot above 10% in seven straight seasons resulting in this season's shooting percentage of 2.56% being a huge outlier. As mentioned earlier, Zibanejad only has 3 points this season with one coming at 5v5, one on the power-play, and one during an empty net. Zibanejad has an IPP of 33.33% which indicates that he is only involved in 33.33% of teammates' goals. Last season, Zibanejad had an IPP of 80.65% while his career average puts him at 66.36%. As a result, Zibanejad only has one goal to show for this season, however, his Individual Expected Goals (ixG) is 3.95, which means that Zibanejad should have at least 3 goals. Zibanejad also has a PDO of 959 which further showcases how unlucky he is this season.
But Zibanejad's performance doesn't just come down to bad puck luck this season. Some Blueshirt fans may say that Zibanejad should shoot more but there's only so much he can do when he's putting up 3 shots a night. Nevertheless, there is some truth in those words. Last season, Zibanejad was shooting 3.65 shots per game and 10.12 shots per 60 minutes. This season, those numbers are down to 3.18 and 9.55, respectfully.
Zibanejad is also skating less this season to boot. Last season, Zibanejad was skating 21:37 a night, while this season, that average drops to 20:25, which is one whole minute less. He's also losing more faceoffs this season. Zibanejad has a faceoff win percentage of 44.49%, which is the 2nd lowest in his 10-year. Prior to this season, Zibanejad achieved a faceoff win percentage greater than 49% for 5 straight seasons. He also has a faceoffs won/60 rate of 25.71 which is a 6 year low. As you know, winning faceoffs leads to puck possessions which result in greater scoring opportunities. Just ask Patrice Bergeron and the Boston Bruins.
Zibanejad's 5v5 Production
Now you might think, 2.56% is already low enough already and there's absolutely no way that Zibanejad can shoot any lower, right? Think again. At 5v5 this season, Zibanejad is shooting 0%. Yes, you read that right. 0%. His shot pace is also down this season too. Last season, Zibanejad was averaging 2.16 shots per game and 9.27 shots/60. This season, Zibanejad is averaging 1.42 shots per game and 6.63 shots/60. Prior to this season, Zibanejad shot an average of 1.63 per game which further indicates that he's shooting less this season. Zibanejad's low shooting percentage and shot pace has translated to zero 5v5 goals this season.
Zibanejad is not the only one having trouble scoring. The centre has an on-ice shooting percentage of 3.33%. On-ice shooting percentage measures the team's shooting percentage when a certain player is on the ice. Zibanejad's on-ice shooting percentage indicates that his teammates are shooting 3.33% when he is on the ice. He also has an IPP of 50% and a PDO of 950. In the previous section, we touched on Zibanejad's ice time. His one minute drop in ice time comes from his 5v5 ice time. This season, Zibanejad is skating 20:25 a night which is lower than last season's average of 21:37. But one minute does not mean much in the grand scheme of things. Zibanejad and his linemates are currently experiencing some bad luck and as a result, Zibanejad only has one point, a single primary assist, to show for this season.
Last season, the line of Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Pavel Buchnevich had a Corsi For Percentage (CF%) of 52.82%. Zibanejad's line had a positive CF% which indicates that they were positive possession line last season. For this season, it's a different story as the Zibanejad line has a CF% of 47.06, which indicates that they are a negative possession line. Moreover, Kreider and Buchnevich have struggled this season when not playing with Zibanejad as they have a CF% of 37.50%. This demonstrates how important Zibanejad is to the Rangers' top line. We can attribute the Zibanejad line's fall in CF% to being tasked with harder matchups this season. Last season, the Zibanejad line saw 45.78% of their faceoffs in the offensive zone. That percentage is down to 41.67% this season which indicates that David Quinn is giving his first line more defensive matchups this season which is another reason why Zibanejad's faceoff win rate is at a 6 year low. Moreover, the Zibanejad line shot 11.84% last season while that mark has dropped to 6.67% this season.
Zibanejad's Power-Play Production
Zibanejad led the Rangers in power-play (PP) points (27) and goals (15) last season. Over one-third of Zibanejad's points,36% to be exact, came on the PP, but it was not hard to see why. Zibanejad shot 25% on the PP last season, which some of you may say is high, but the centre shot 21.21% on the PP during the 2017-18 season. Shooting over 20% is a figure Zibanejad can reach again. Moreover, the New York Rangers' PP converted on 22.90% of their opportunities, good enough for 7th in the league. Zibanejad was a key staple on the Rangers' first PP unit and saw 3:43 of PP time a game which translated to 70.1% of his team's total PP time.
This season, Zibanejad is only seeing 68.1% of his team's PP time. But a 2% drop in PP time is not a bad thing as Zibanejad is skating a career-high, 4:17, on the PP this season. In addition, Zibanejad is shooting more on the PP this season which is encouraging given his struggles this season. He is shooting 23.3 shots/60, which is a career-high. Last season, Zibanejad was shooting 17.26 shots/60. His extra 34 seconds on PP and increased shot pace have only led to one point, a goal, though.
So what's going on this season? Well for one, Zibanejad is currently shooting 5% on the PP. Second, Zibanejad has an IPP of 16.67%. 16.67% is a far cry from Zibanejad's IPP last season when he was involved in 84.38% of the goals on the PP. Moreover, the PP that was ranked 7th last season is now in the bottom 10 of the league. The Rangers are converting on 13% of their PP opportunities, which ranks them 24th in the league. They have also made a huge change with their first PP unit this season with Adam Fox taking over PP quarterback duties from Tony DeAngelo. DeAngelo was involved in 29.6% (8/27) of Zibanejad's PP points last season and received 47.3% of the team's total PP time on ice (I broke down DeAngelo's performance last season before he was waived, which you can read here). DeAngelo was a huge part of the Rangers' offense last season and losing him has dampened the team's offense.
Conclusion
Many saw Zibanejad's regression coming, but they never would have guessed that Zibanejad would underperform relative to his career average. COVID-19 has most likely played a part in Zibanejad's performance this season as it has been documented that the virus has negatively affected the health of athletes. Moreover, lady luck has not been kind to Zibanejad this season as he is shooting extremely low in all situations and has an obscenely low IPP at 5v5 and on the PP. His teammates are also having difficulties finding the net at 5v5. Lastly, Zibanejad is receiving more difficult matchups this season which reduces his opportunities to produce. With this season being a huge anomaly, the Rangers are already one-fifth through their season and need their star player to step up now more than ever. It's just only a matter of time that Zibanejad will turn it around.