Why You Need to Pick up Oliver Bjorkstrand Right Now

Introduction

What's poppin hockey nerds. It's your boy vizioN back with another analysis. You might have saw me the other today when I did an analysis on Cam Atkinson as a sleeper. Today we'll be focusing on Columbus' Danish sharpshooter, Oliver Bjorkstrand. I understand there's been a lot of skepticism about Bjorkstrand lately, especially after lighting the league for half a season, but I will be explaining why Bjorkstrand is the real deal and why you should pick him up.

Last Season

Bjorkstrand enjoyed a great breakout season, scoring 36 points (21g & 15a) in 49 games, which is a 35 goal pace across 82 games. Bjorkstrand faced multiple injuries which prevented him from tearing up the league. But injuries did not slow him down as Bjorkstrand picked up from where he left off. During his first return, Bjorkstrand tallied 2 goals against both the Rangers (6 SOG) and Jets (4 SOG), powering the Blue Jackets to victories in both matches before hitting the injury reserve. Bjorkstrand returned 10 days against the Sabres in an OT loss, scoring one goal. Across his next 11 games, Bjorkstrand tallied 9 points before suffering a season ending injury (Sprained and fractured ankle). Note, Bjorkstrand had 30 points (17g & 13a) in his last 30 games before his season-ending injury.

Season Preview

The 2020-21 season will be an important season for Bjorkstrand. The Danish sniper is expected to build on his 2019-2020 campaign and will be an important cornerstone piece for his team in the upcoming years. As a show of good faith, the Blue Jackets rewarded their star player with a 5-year contract worth $27 million ($5.4 AVV). Torts even went as far as to call the Dane their best player at the time of his injury. Even going back to the 2016-2017 season when Bjorkstrand was a 21-year-old rookie who was drafted in the third round (2013), Torts placed the young budding star on the first line. Basically put, Bjorkstrand will be expected to put up numbers this season and Torts will give him every chance to do so.

Bjorkstrand has been shifting between the first and second line during training, but the key thing here is that PLD is his centre. PLD is Columbus' franchise player and it is expected that he will be getting first-line minutes, so we can assume that Bjorkstrand will be getting first-line minutes.

Injury Concerns

Some of you may have called Bjorkstrand glass this past season, but he isn't as injury prone as you think. Bjorkstrand established himself as a regular on the Blue Jackets during the 2017-18 season, playing all 82 games. During the 2018-2019, Bjorkstrand played 77 games and missed 5 games due to healthy-scratches. Bjorkstrand found himself in Torts' doghouse after scoring 1 goal and 2 assists to start off the first 14 games of the season but ended the season strong scoring 18 points (14g & 4a) in his last 23 games.

This past season, Bjorkstrand suffered 2 major injuries, one of which was a season-ending injury. Bjorkstrand missed 13 games during his first injury, which was a rib/cartilage contusion and oblique strain. The injury was caused when Damon Severson of the New Jersey Devils cross checked Bjorkstrand in the back. Bjorkstrand suffered his second injury when he lost his footing while trying to play the puck and crashed feet first into the boards.

Bjorkstrand doesn't demonstrate any history of injuries, apart from the ones this past season. Bjorkstrand is not as injury prone as you think and should not be in the same conversations as Malkin, Letang, Zibanejad, and Mantha. Expect another healthy season from Bjorkstrand, bar a freak accident.

Columbus Blue Jackets' Power Play Woes

I'm going to touch a bit on CBJ's power play (PP) since u/Gaglardi voiced their concern regarding it. Last season, Columbus converted 16.4% of their PP opportunities, ranking them 27th in the league. They also generated 286 shots on their PP, good enough for 26th. Not going to lie, but these numbers are not looking so good so I can understand why so many are wary.

But shot generation was not the reason why the Blue Jackets' PP was so horrid. CBJ generated 52.55 shots per 60 minutes (SF/60), putting them right in the middle at the pack at 15th, above top 10 PP teams, such as Edmonton (16th) and Vancouver (18th). They were even above star-studded teams, such as Colorado (26th), Washington (23rd), and Washington (21st).

The issue with CBJ's PP last season was the quality of their shots. The team ranked 27th in xGF/60 (Expected Goals For per 60). The team also ranked 29th in SCF/60 (Scoring Chances per 60) and 28th in HDGF/60 (High Danger Scoring Chances per 60). CBJ were generating shots, but the shots they were generating were low quality.

Although CBJ were not great at generating quality scoring chances, luck played a factor in their PP. CBJ's PP had a shooting percentage of 10.84%, which ranks them 25th last season. Not to mention, Bjorkstrand and co were ranked 27th in PP opportunities at 189. Lady luck was not kind to Columbus last season.

Now you might ask, where does Bjorkstrand play in this? Well according to Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath), CBJ played 204 minutes of 5v4 PP without Bjorkstrand and 121 minutes with Bjorkstrand. Bjorkstrand was not given the opportunity to showcase his talent on the PP last season. But when Bjorkstrand was given the chance, the Dane was unlucky. Bjorkstrand shot 8.57% on 35 shots which is a huge difference from his 11.5% career shooting percentage. If Bjorkstrand is given an opportunity on the PP and shoots a bit better, CBJ's PP will most certainly improve.

5v5/Even Strength

But but but vizioN, Bjorky is bad with the man advantage! What makes him so special when 5v5 is even harder? Well to answer that Timmy, Bjorkstrand is one of the league's best players at even strength (EV).

According to Micah, Bjorkstrand is an extremely good play-driver with an excellent shot. Bjorkstrand is not only great at scoring and generating chances, but he is a great defender. @JFreshHockey ranks Bjorkstrand in the 82nd percentile for EV offence and 98th percentile for EV defence. When looking at @IneffectiveMath's 5v5 Shot Rate Impact model, Bjorkstrand is driver in the sense that his impacts are good but also in the sense that the on-ice results with him are mostly a function of his own ability and not his teammates/comp/game state.

Among skaters with at least 500 TOI last year, Bjorstrand was ranked 6th for 5v5 Goals/60 at 1.5. Matthews was third at 1.56. Bjorkstrand was ranked above the likes of Zibanejad, Aho, Kucherov, Guentzal, McDavid, and Panarin. In addition, Bjorkstrand was ranked 18th in SOG/60, above players, such as Patrick Kane, Kucherov, Zibanejad, Kyle Connor, Tavares, and Laine. According to @RussIvanac, this puts Bjorkstrand in the 96th percentile in Goals/60 and 97th percentile in SOG/60 EV. This demonstrates how underrated the Dane is.

But but but vizioN, Bjorky is a one year wonder! Well you're actually wrong Timmy. Bjorkstrand has been a budding star for a while. In 2018-19, Bjorkstrand was ranked in the 78th and 71st percentile for EV Goals/60 and SOG/60, respectively. Bjorkstrand was only able to break out last year as he saw 17:56 of ice time, an increase of 5:36 TOI from the previous season (12:20). Bjorkstrand saw huge minute increases as the season went on. Bjorkstrand averaged 16:46, 17:53, and 19:42 in quarter 1, 2, and 3. In quarter three, Bjorkstrand was playing at a point per game (PPG) pace scoring 13 points (9g & 4a) in 13 games in 19:42, with 2:15 of PP time. Although Bjorkstrand maintained a PPG pace in quarter 3, he shot 22.5% which is unsustainable. However, he was able to sustain the pace by receiving an increase of 2 mins in ice time. Moreover, Bjorkstrand's season was cut short so perhaps he could've maintained his PPG pace with additional assists or an increase in shot production.

IPP and EV Shooting Percentage

Bjorkstrand had an IPP of 75 at EV last season, which was lower than his career average of 77.51. This means that Bjorkstrand picked up a point 75% of the time his team scores. Bjorkstrand's IPP last year was lower than his career which means that he did not overperform and performed relative to his career average.

Bjorkstrand also shot 14.17% at EV which is a bit higher than his EV career average of 11.48%. The only reason why it seems a bit high is because 2017-2018 was an outlier that heavily affected his EV career shooting average. Bjorkstrand shot 5.76% across 82 games in 2017-18. If we remove the 2017-18 season, Bjorkstrand EV career shooting average becomes 14.08%, which is more in line with last season's 14.17%. Small sample size but in Bjorkstrand's five seasons in the league, he shot over 13% three times and over 14% twice. This suggests that Bjorkstrand can maintain his high shooting percentage.

Conclusion

Bjorkstrand was an extremely underrated player last season who was scoring at a 35 goal pace with only 17:56 of ice time and without substantial PP time. As the season went by, Bjorkstrand almost saw 20 minutes worth of ice time (19:42) which was a huge reason as to why he ended up scoring 30 points in his last 30 games. If Bjorkstrand is able to see 20 minutes with considerable PP time, there's a chance we may see an elite player in the making.

How well do you guys think Bjorkstrand will do this season and do you think he can put Columbus on his back?