Kyle Connor Is The Next Biggest Thing and Here’s Why

What’s poppin hockey nerds, it’s your boy vizioN back again with another spam post. But it’s the good kind of spam I promise you, not this kind. I have a couple of analyses planned but this will probably be the last post for me for a while. So fear not, the spamming will stop soon.

Anyhow, we will be taking a look at Kyle Connor today. Kyle Connor has quietly been establishing himself as one of the league’s best goal-scoring wingers in recent years. On a team that has Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, and Patrik Laine, it can be easy to see why Connor is flying under the radar. Over the last few seasons, Connor has been a solid contributor in the shots and goals department establishing himself as an attractive fantasy asset. Moreover, his underlying number speaks volume about his development and suggests that he is shaping up to be someone more than just solid.

Last Season

If you grabbed Connor last year around round 10-12, congratulations! You found yourself a gem. Fresh off a 7 year, $50 million contract ($7.1 AVV), the sharpshooter broke out with career highs in almost every department. Goals, assists, points, shots, and ice time, you name it! Although Connor started the season slow (6 points in 13 games), he posted 67 points in his last 58 games. The young sniper scored 38 goals and tallied 35 assists in 71 games, good enough for 73 points (84 point pace). Connor was tied 6th for goals with Aho and scored more goals than Eichel (36), Mackinnon (35), McDavid (34), Kane (33), Kucherov (33). You get the point, the kid is special.

Season Preview

After spending much of last season on the first line, Connor has been placed on the second line with Laine and newcomer Paul Stastny. However, this is not a bad thing as Winnipeg arguably has a 1A/1B situation with their top two lines. Stastny has already found chemistry with Laine back in the latter half of the 2017-2018 season, logging 350 minutes together and out-scoring opponents 24-12 at 5-on-5. Stastny is still a great playmaker with his shot assist being ranked in the 89th percentile over the course of the last three years. However, Stastny is showing signs of decline as his shot assists fell to the 70th percentile this past season. It’s not all doom and gloom as Connor is still featured on PP1 which will keep his fantasy value afloat.

Career So Far

We'll first start off by taking a look at Connor's four seasons in the league. Regardless of the number of games that were played, Connor's totals for goals, assists, points, shots, and ice time have steadily increased with each passing season while maintaining a sustainable shooting percentage. Notice anything unusual? Neither do I.

However, three categories stand out to me. Secondary assist, shooting percentage, and IPP. These three statistics are factors used to determine if a player has had a lucky season or not. Connor's assist totals have increased each season but his secondary assist total has stayed nearly the same at 12 and 13. Connor's strong primary assists numbers suggest that his playmaking is sustainable. Next up is Connor's shooting percentage. Since establishing himself as a regular during the 2017-18 season, Connor's shooting percentage has stayed nearly the same at 16.1%, 15.0%, and 15.9%. This indicates that Connor is a consistent shooter and will continue to put up numbers as long as he shoots more. Lastly, Connor's IPP has stayed around his career average of 64.25 which also show signs of sustainability. Overall, these three statistics are an indicator of consistent performance and does not show signs of regression or puck luck.

Goal & Shot Production

Connor was ranked 6th for goals last season but let's take a look at where he ranks over the last three years. In the last three seasons, Connor has scored 103 goals which rank him 10th in that timespan. Connor is ranked higher than recognized goal scorers, such as Laine (11th, 104), Aho (16th, 97), Seguin (19th, 90), Eichel (20th, 89, and Panarin (24th, 87). As for his goal per 60 rate, Connor is ranked 12th with 1.417 goals/60. Once again, he is ranked higher than the players mentioned above, except for Laine (9th, 1.498).

How about shots? Connor was ranked 10th in shots last season, 9th among forwards and 6th among wingers. Connor's 239 SOG season puts him ahead of high volume shooters, such as Marchessault, Hall, Gallagher, Laine, Draisaitl, and Evander Kane. When we filter this to the last three seasons, Connor is ranked 26th among all skaters, 23rd among all forwards, and 16th among all wingers. Gallagher (5th), Evander Kane (6th), Marchessault (7th), and Eichel (8th) were all ranked higher than Connor in the three years, however, Connor shot more than these players last season.

Connor was ranked higher for goals and shots last season than in the last three years, which is an encouraging sight to see. This indicates that Connor performed better last year than his 3-year average and is improving.

Kyle Connor vs The 30 Highest Drafted Wingers

In this section, we will be taking a look at per 60 rates for the top 30 wingers by average draft position and see how Connor stack up against them.

Connor was ranked 5th for goals per 60 minutes with 1.52. This puts him behind Pastrnak (2.17), Ovechkin (2.05), Stamkos (1.66), and Kucherov (1.54). Not a bad company to be in.

Connor was ranked 25th for assists per 60 with 1.4, which puts him near the bottom of the list. Not a good look for Connor but he's more known for his goal-scoring abilities to be fair. On the contrary, Connor has not seen an increase in secondary assists in his career yet. If a few lucky bounces go his way this season, it will propel him up the list. Furthermore, Connor has increased his assist rate over each passing season in his four-year career: 0.74, 1.21, 1.22, and 1.40.

Connor was ranked 15th for points per 60 with 2.93, which puts him right in the middle of the list. If Connor increases his assist output, it will potentially bump him into the top 10 where Marner is sitting with 3.16. Guentzel, Svechnikov, and Kane are right ahead with 3.21, 3.22, and 3.37, respectively.

Connor was ranked 25th for power-play points (PPP) per 60 with 4.38, which puts him ahead of Landeskog, Ovechkin (yes, you read that right), Hall (and this too. thanks tocchet), Gallagher, and Brady Tkachuk. Connor's PPP per 60 is just way too low for someone with great goal-scoring capabilities. However, Connor's PPP rate has been increasing every year with 3.26, 3.99, and 4.38. This indicates that Connor isn't just relying on his shooting but he's also improving his PP playmaking to help his team earn more PP goals. I disregarded Connor's first season due to low sample size as he played 21 games.

Connor was ranked 12th for SOG per 60, just sitting outside the top 10 with 9.58. This puts him ahead of higher ADP established and well-known wingers, such as Gaudreau (9.53), Guenztal (9.47), Panarin (8.82), Marchand (8.15), Rantanen (8.07), Stone (8.04), and Huberdeau (7.04). Teammate, Patrik Laine, is ranked 9th with 10.27. Just like his assist and PPP rate, Connor has been increasing his shot pace with each passing season, except for the 2018-19 season where Connor saw a slight decrease of 0.34. Connor's shot pace in his 4-year career is as followed: 5.89, 8.97, 8.63, and 9.58.

Kyle Connor's Age 23 Season

Next up, we will be taking a look at a few other wingers who serve as comparables to Connor. I didn't really have set criteria for the selection process. I chose players who had an age 23 season and were either top tier scorers (Kucherov and Pastrnak), known for scoring (Huberdeau, Hall, Rantanen, and Forsberg), or high volume shooters (Kane, Tarasenko, Guentzel, and Pacioretty). Note, all these players have ranked ahead of Connor, in terms of ADP, in this year's fantasy hockey except for Forsberg. We will be comparing Connor's age 23 season to the age 23 seasons of these wingers.

We can already see that Connor was given more ice time last year than any of these players on the list, which indicates how much confidence Paul Maurice has in Connor. Keep in mind, Connor's ice time of 21:05 was higher than when Kane (20:25 in 15-16), Kucherov (19:58 in 18-19), and Hall (19:09 in 17-18) won the Hart Memorial Trophy. These three players amassed 37, 48, and 37 power-play points, respectively, in the years they won the MVP trophy. Connor is obviously not as talented as these three players, but ice time is key when it comes to on-ice production.

Connor shot more than Huberdeau, Rantanen, Guentzel, Gaudreau, Hall, and Forsberg in their age 23 seasons. However, these three players have already seasons with more than 200 SOG: Forsberg (3), Hall (2), and Gaudreau (1). Connor has already had 2 seasons with more than 200 SOG, which would have been three had he shot 8 more times in his rookie season. Connor is also tied with Tarasenko for third with 73 points when it comes to scoring. Only Pastrnak and Kucherov scored more in their age 23 seasons with 95 and 85, respectively.

Conclusion

Connor is a top 10 goal-scoring winger and is slowly itching his way into the top 5. Having an ADP of 65.1 is absolutely criminal when arguably worse-performing wingers, such as Gaudreau, Teravainen, and Stone are being drafted ahead of him. Connor is a potential 40 goal PPG player (would've hit this had COVID-19 not happen) who is being drafted way too low.

Do you guys think Connor will score at a 40 goal pace this season in an offence heavy Canadian division or will the line shuffling in Winnipeg drop him back down to a 30-35 goal winger? I think Connor is the real deal so y'all gotta put some respek on his name and stop sleeping on him :>